Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-20 12.545452 14.648622 16.949201 19.646292 22.715024 26.091233 30.080011
2024-10-27 9.199689 12.037733 15.454189 19.840545 25.290203 31.803322 40.137999
2024-11-03 7.589499 10.935639 15.299033 21.332829 29.375149 39.630204 53.583905
2024-11-10 6.284419 9.862273 14.865985 22.240926 32.671449 46.706350 66.785784
2024-11-17 5.312889 9.002602 14.493903 23.051891 35.789911 53.730221 80.500318
2024-11-24 4.342348 7.920988 13.571459 22.850140 37.328371 58.587042 91.537371
2024-12-01 3.462242 6.790050 12.355559 21.964716 37.643818 61.581018 100.012815
2024-12-08 2.809400 5.904737 11.371023 21.261356 38.078361 64.682701 108.778939
2024-12-15 2.416640 5.407806 10.954318 21.414931 39.855721 69.943626 121.200062
2024-12-22 2.033734 4.848312 10.328546 21.097206 40.764367 73.829315 131.665183
2024-12-29 1.872041 4.706566 10.454729 22.138616 44.102612 81.936737 149.537379
2025-01-05 1.666383 4.427054 10.264689 22.546827 46.319414 88.279158 164.859536
2025-01-12 1.457884 4.108309 9.966942 22.747600 48.247980 94.404769 180.501347
2025-01-19 1.275764 3.814223 9.678434 22.935593 50.182914 100.720033 196.988320
2025-01-26 1.223903 3.836360 10.086316 24.616984 55.180454 112.950307 224.792845
2025-02-02 1.130740 3.729546 10.183691 25.641636 58.957183 123.188292 249.657059
2025-02-09 1.040542 3.610272 10.231895 26.558664 62.589148 133.395821 275.093042
2025-02-16 0.900568 3.313286 9.799173 26.329254 63.796806 139.026458 292.331857
2025-02-23 0.745826 2.928937 9.077849 25.325354 63.233728 141.127370 302.973547
2025-03-02 0.624199 2.614018 8.479370 24.527592 63.023216 143.881194 315.002240
2025-03-09 0.555439 2.457517 8.284562 24.701744 65.002622 151.207957 336.431487
2025-03-16 0.478325 2.248005 7.901610 24.341323 65.708425 155.927509 352.916052
2025-03-23 0.455602 2.236055 8.096481 25.522325 70.139472 168.774933 386.564271